It’s no secret that the Gulf Coast stays warmer throughout winter than most of the United States. Unfortunately, that can mean a warmer Gulf of Mexico and an earlier start to the Atlantic hurricane season.
The official start of hurricane season for the Gulf Coast is June 1st. The season runs through the summer until its official end on November 30th. However, according to CNN and Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami, the North Atlantic is warmer than usual right now which could cause an early storm season.
Warm Water Helps Create These Tropical Systems
It takes a warm Atlantic to create the tropical systems that turn into hurricanes. The warmer water helps to fuel the low pressures that spawn systems off the coast of Africa and elsewhere in the Atlantic.
El Niño’s Role
While El Niño has ruled the winter landscape since 2023, especially in the southern United States, forecasts are set for La Niña appearing before long.
Characterized by warmer waters pushing from the Equator into the Pacific, El Niño spreads warmer air. This air keeps the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic warmer, making the perfect medium for an active hurricane season.
La Niña’s Role
La Niña is the exact opposite. This weather system pushes colder waters into the Pacific, causing cooler weather to hit the southern states along the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast. While El Niño means warmer, dryer winters, La Niña means colder, wetter weather.
That extra precipitation means turbulent weather isn’t far behind.
Historic Water Temperatures
With warmer waters in the Gulf and Atlantic sitting at record-high temperatures, hurricanes have a higher chance of forming and are likely to be stronger. Like tornadoes need a mix of hot and cold air, hurricanes need warm water.
Because El Niño has been keeping the water around the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico much warmer for the winter season, February is seeing historic sea surface temps that could spell more extreme weather than is typical.
Emergency Preparedness
Being prepared, just in case, is the best defense against the unknowns of hurricane season. Have a means to board up your home. Secure enough cash for an emergency. Stock up on essentials like water and easy-to-cook food. Be able to sandbag your doors if you decide to evacuate.
Most of the time, these steps will be overkill, but you can’t be too prepared when a hurricane like Andrew or Katrina comes along.
Weather Is Unpredictable
Having lived in central Florida for the past two decades, one thing I can attest to is that no season is exactly like any other. You can go six months without disturbing weather or have ten systems pass by.
