Kentucky, Mississippi, Virginia, and extra! The Daily Kos hour-by-hour information to election night time 2019

Posted On Nov 28, 2019 By admin With Comments Off

While 2019 is an off-year for most major elections, we still have plenty of arousing hastens to watch on Tuesday. Democrat are hoping to flip the governorships in Kentucky and Mississippi, as well as both cavities of the Virginia state legislature. We likewise have various important races in major metropolis and counties across the country.( Louisiana, where Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is up for re-election, doesn’t conduct its runoffs until Nov. 16.)

What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday’s most interesting and competitive struggles, organized by poll closing goes. Please note that all times are Eastern. All mayoral scoots discussed below are for four-year words unless otherwise noted.

We’ll be liveblogging research results at Daily Kos Elections, starting at 6 PM ET, and tweeting as well.

6 PM ET: Kentucky( Eastern Time Zone ); Indianapolis, IN

* KY-Gov: Republican Gov. Matt Bevin has depleted the last four years feuding with almost everyone, including the state’s teachers unions and members of his own party, and various ballots have shown him profoundly unpopular. Nonetheless, Kentucky is one of the most conservative states in the country, and Bevin and his allies at the Republican Governors Association, as well as Donald Trump, have been trying to tie Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear to high-profile national Democrats.

Beshear, who is the son of Kentucky’s last Democratic governor, has been focused on more neighbourhood concerns. He’s run ads focused on Bevin’s many slandering observes towards teachers and other Kentuckians and has also argued that Bevin is a threat to agricultural residents’ healthcare. There has been almost no public polling now throughout the entire race, but due to Kentucky’s deep red hue, we rate this scoot as Lean Republican.

* KY-SoS, KY-AG: Bluegrass Democrat are also hoping to hang onto their two remaining statewide offices. The contest to succeed termed-out Secretary of State Alison Grimes is between Democrat Heather French Henry, who is a former head of the state Department of Ex-serviceman Affairs as well as the 2000 Miss America, and Republican elections attorney Michael Adams.

The race to succeed Beshear as united states attorney general pits onetime Democratic state House Speaker Greg Stumbo, who has ever dished as united states attorney general from 2004 to 2008, against Republican Daniel Cameron. Cameron is a former general counsel for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and he’d be the first Republican to hold this office since World War II, as well as the state’s firstly pitch-black attorney general.

* Indianapolis, IN Mayor: Joe Hogsett recaptured this office for the Democrat in 2015 after eight years of Republican control, and he faces a challenge GOP state Sen. Jim Merritt. The hasten for what has become a reliably blue-blooded municipal doesn’t look very competitive, though. Hogsett has decisively outraised Merritt, and a late October poll from the GOP firm Mason Strategies for Indy Politics handed the incumbent a 57 -2 3 leading.

7 PM ET: Kentucky( residual of the state ); Virginia; Manchester, NH

* VA Legislature: Republicans enter Tuesday viewing merely a 21 -1 9 majority in the state Senate and an equally thin 51 -4 9 edge in the country House, and Democrat are looking to take control of both for the first time in a fourth century. The part parliament is up on Tuesday and there are plenty of competitive sits in both houses, so we’ve put together the present guidelines to assist you keep track of the battlefield.

The Senate, where members are elected to four-year expressions, ogles more likely to flip. Republicans aren’t dangerously targeting any Democratic-held tushes, and if Team Blue picks up simply one fanny, Democratic Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax would be able to break a knot for his party–at least in theory.

However, Democrats wouldn’t be comfortable with a 20 -2 0 stalemate. While the Senate won’t be up again until 2023, the lieutenant governor’s office is on the ballot in 2021, so a GOP win then would turn a bind chamber back to them. Democrats too don’t want to stake their majority on Fairfax, whom two women have accused of sexually onslaught them, or the notorious Joe Morrissey, who says he’ll caucus with the Democrat but has become an independent twice in the last five years.

Meanwhile, the elections for the House will be held under a new court-ordered map that will be used in place of the previous GOP gerrymander, which federal evaluates partly affect down for discriminating against black voters. The brand-new directions yield Democrats a considerably better prospect in a number of quarters, but unlike in the Senate, Team Red does have some getaway openings, especially after Democrats won an unexpected 15 -seat landslide two years ago. The House will be next up again in 2021, along with the governorship.

* Prince William County, VA Supervisor Chair: Confederacy fanboy and frequent statewide nominee Corey Stewart is retiring as chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, and the GOP has nominated another far-right candidate in their proposal to keep control of Virginia’s second-largest jurisdiction. Accountant John Gray plucked off a surprising win in May’s party-run firehouse primary, and he’s vigorously adopted Donald Trump in a Northern Virginia county that backed Hillary Clinton 58 -3 7.

However, even Gray seems to have realized that voters wouldn’t respond well to his Trump-like tweets, so he paid a company $30 to scour his account of thousands of posts. Regrettably for Gray, though, Democrat Ann Wheeler’s campaign abruptly learnt and liberated the prejudiced and misogynist tweets that Gray to seek to purge.

* Manchester, NH Mayor: Joyce Craig composed a key triumph for Democrats in 2017 when she was elected mayor of this swinging state’s largest metropoli, bursting a 12 -year Republican streak, and she’s the ponderous favorite to win a second two-year term. Craig outpolled onetime GOP state Rep. Victoria Sullivan by a wide 57 -3 9 perimeter in the August nonpartisan primary, so it would be a surprise if she has trouble in their rematch on Tuesday. Craig has already been mentioned as a probable candidate for higher place, and a wide win over Sullivan would only increase her stature.

8 PM ET: Mississippi; New Jersey; Texas; Wichita, KS; Bucks County, PA

* MS-Gov: GOP Gov. Phil Bryant is termed-out, and Democrat wished to be prevail their first gubernatorial game in Mississippi in 20 years. Team Blue’s nominee is four-term Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat who has prevailed a statewide hasten in over a decade, while the GOP is fielding Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves.

Mississippi is another terribly red district, but Democrats hope that Hood’s popularity will give him an opening against Reeves. The lieutenant superintendent has also made his share of antagonists( Reeves’ intra-party detractors have liberally utilized the word “arrogant” to describe him ), and while he won the August primary runoff 56 -4 4, his demolished opposing, Bill Waller Jr. refused to endorse him.

There have been very few ballots now, but those we’ve seen show that it’s probable Hood could earn more elections than Reeves. However, Mississippi’s 1890 country organisation contains a Jim Crow-era provision that requires gubernatorial applicants to triumph both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the regime House; if someone fails to made both sets of benchmarks, the Republican-controlled state House picks the new superintendent from the top two finishers.

That develops a double-barreled problem for Democrat. Since Republican gerrymandered the House map in the first place, there’s little chance that Hood can win a majority of districts, forbidding an unlikely landslide. But on top of that, if the hasten gets thrown to the House, there’s little question that GOP lawmakers would pick their own party’s nominee no matter which candidate actually won the most elections. Several black voters are currently indicting to overrule this law and a federal referee indicated he would step in to forbid its enforcement after Election Day if it were to come into play. Because of the serious obstacles Hood faces, we rate this race as Likely Republican.

* MS-AG: The scoot to succeed Democrat Jim Hood as united states attorney general cavities Democrat Jennifer Riley Collins, who is a former executive director of the Mississippi ACLU, against Republican state Treasurer Lynn Fitch. Either candidate would be the first bride to serve as attorney general; Collins would also be the first African American to ever deem this affix while Fitch would be the first Republican.

Again, though, the same Jim Crow-era law that meets Hood’s path to the governorship difficult also applies to every other statewide race, so even if Collins makes “the worlds largest” votes, the state House could wind up picking Fitch over her.

* MS Legislature: The GOP manager into Tuesday with a 75 -4 5 majority in the mood House( another two fannies are held by independents ), and thanks to both the state’s republican lean and its Republican gerrymander, Team Red isn’t in any danger of losing power. The GOP shouldn’t have any trouble fight their 33-19 edge in the state Senate, either. Both regime representatives and senators provide four-year terms.

* NJ Legislature: The entire nation House is up for another two-year term on Tuesday, but Democrats aren’t worried about losing their 54-26 majority. The territory Senate, which Democrat too harboured, will not be up again until 2021, though there’s one special referendum for a Democratic-held seat in a territory Trump earned( the 1st ).

* Wichita, KS Mayor: Republican incumbent Jeff Longwell threw the mayor’s office in Wichita, the state’s largest municipal, in 2015, but Team Blue has the chance to get it back in this officially nonpartisan race. Longwell took first place in the August nonpartisan primary with 32% of the vote while Democratic territory Rep. Brandon Whipple came out narrowly ahead of GOP financier Lyndy Wells for second by a 25.9 -2 5.2 spread. In mid-October, though, Wells announced that he’d run as a write-in candidate.

Longwell sucked some bad headlines in September when The Wichita Eagle reported that he had steered a large and crucial city contract for a new ocean treatment weed to his political friends and friends. Holes said the next month that he hadn’t planned to wage a write-in campaign until this news broke.

The race made another bad turn a few weeks before Election Day when Whipple filed a defamation prosecution against a Republican operative and two unnamed defendants over a network ad that falsely accused Whipple of sexual harassment. Longwell has condemned the spot and rejected any involvement.

* Bucks County, PA Commission: Republicans have spent decades in charge of the three-member Board of Commissioners in suburban Philadelphia’s populous and competitive Bucks County, but Democrat eventually have the chance to take the majority on Tuesday.

Team Blue already achieved a major breakthrough in 2017 when they took four of Bucks’ five so-called “row agencies, ” which are the countywide offices other than commissioner; until that time, Democrats hadn’t prevailed a single row place in over 30 years. Republicans then got some more unwanted report earlier this year when one of their two province commissioners, Charley Martin, decided to retire after 23 years on the board.

County commission hastens operate under different rules in Pennsylvania than they do pretty much anywhere else. All three benches are elected countywide, and voters can select up to two candidates. Nonetheless, each party can only nominate two candidates, so the board will wind up with a 2-1 separate no matter what. The question is which defendant will get that vital second fanny that they need to control the body.

The board’s Republican chair, Robert Loughery, is seeking re-election, and he’s joined by state Rep. Gene DiGirolamo, who represents a Democratic-leaning seat in the legislature. The Democratic ticket features incumbent Diane Ellis-Marseglia and Bob Harvie, who dishes as chair of the Falls Township Board of Supervisors.

In 2015, the last time the commission was up, Loughery took first place with 27% while Ellis-Marseglia was close behind with 26%. Martin managed to edge out a Democratic applicant for the third and final seat by a shrink 23.8 -2 3.5 boundary, a 728 -vote victory that allowed Republicans to hang on to the majority for another four years, but that long blotch could come to an end on Tuesday.

* TX State House: Texas Democrat need to pick up exactly nine tushes in the 150 -member state House next year to make the majority of members for the first time in ages, and they have a chance to whittle that target quantity down by one in Tuesday’s special poll by flipping the unoccupied 28 th District in the Houston suburbs.

Mitt Romney easily carried this region 64-35 in 2012, while Ted Cruz won it by a same 64 -3 4 margin that year. By 2016, nonetheless, this quarter had moved aggressively toward Democrats, as Donald Trump won by a much smaller 53 -4 3 spread–a gap that collapsed to precisely 3 points in Cruz’s re-election bid last year, the same as his statewide margin.

Under Texas law, all candidates from all parties compete on one vote, and if no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to an as-yet unscheduled runoff. Educator Eliz Markowitz is the lone Democrat in the race while six Republicans are fighting it out, so there’s a chance she could win outright on Tuesday.

* Houston, TX Mayor: Democratic Mayor Sylvester Turner is seeking a second term as manager of America’s fourth-largest city, and he needs to win a majority of the vote to avoid a Dec. 14 runoff.

Turner’s main foe in this nonpartisan race appears to be attorney Tony Buzbee, who has poured at least $ 10 million of his own money into his campaign. Buzbee, who successfully attacked then-GOP Gov. Rick Perry on corruption indicts in 2014, refuses to identify himself with all interested parties, and he’s hosted fundraisers with Donald Trump as well as Hillary Clinton. However, he too gifted $500,000 to Trump’s inaugural committee and has a Trumpesque habit of slandering his opponents over social media, inducing Turner to run ads connecting the two men.

Businessman Bill King, a conservative independent who lost to Turner 51 -4 9 in 2015, is also running again, as are two Democrats, City Councilor Dwight Boykins and onetime City Councilor Sue Lovell. However, two polls this fall depicted Buzbee far ahead of the rest of Turner’s resists. The two cross-examines also demo Turner falling short of a majority on Tuesday but still contributing Buzbee by double toes in a hypothetical runoff.

9 PM ET: New York; Aurora, CO; Des Moines, IA

* Dutchess County, NY Executive: National Republicans are hoping to recruit Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in New York’s 19 th Congressional District, but Molinaro has most immediate obsess. Molinaro is up for re-election against Democrat Joseph Ruggiero, a onetime executive director of the New York State Bridge Authority who lost the 2007 contest to lead this competitive Hudson Valley County by a narrow 52 -4 8 margin.

Ruggiero has pointed to Molinaro’s 2018 ranged against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his potential 2020 congressional order to argue that the incumbent is “tired” of his activity and “hasn’t restrained the eye on the ball, which is county government.” For his part, Molinaro has claimed that Cuomo’s team is behind Ruggiero’s campaign in order to punish the Republican for his gubernatorial attempt. Ruggiero responded, “I can turn around and say, ‘Cuomo got me to run? Well, that’s not true. Maybe Trump has been calling Molinaro.'” Last year, Molinaro carried Dutchess County 52 -4 5 while losing 60 -3 6 statewide.

* Erie County, NY Executive: Republicans lost self-control of the top profession in Erie County, which is home to Buffalo and some of its outskirts, in 2011 when Democrat Mark Poloncarz ousted County Executive Chris Collins.( Collins won a seat in Congress the next year but vacated at the end of September and currently faces up to 10 years in prison on costs applicable to insider trading .)

Poloncarz faces a challengefrom County Legislator Lynne Dixon, a member of the Independence Party who is also flee on the GOP line.( New York’s electoral synthesi principle gives candidates to claim nominations from multiple defendants .) Erie County backed Hillary Clinton 51 -4 4, and Dixon is promoting herself as an “independent” voice even though she’s reliably elected with her Republican peers on important issues and backed Donald Trump in 2016. Poloncarz has responded by tying Dixon to the dishonor Collins and described his own letter as “strong monetary lead while also approving of progressive values.”

Dixon and her collaborators are hoping that a statute recently passed by the Democratic state legislature that allows undocumented immigrants to apply for drivers’ licenses will lead to a resistance against Democrats on Tuesday. Poloncarz says he substantiates a suit against the legislation brought by the county clerk but believes it was surpassed with good intentions.

* Monroe County, NY Executive: Republican incumbent Cheryl Dinolfo faces Democratic County Clerk Adam Bello in the race to lead Monroe County, which includes Rochester and some of its suburbs.

Dinolfo, who is seeking her second term, is stressed that she overtook the county’s firstly property tax rate decrease in a decade and was of the view that 20,000 regional jobs were created during her government. Bello, though, has reminded voters that the province will still accumulate more in asset taxes than it did the previous year and argued that Dinolfo has dramatically inflated her job creation number. Bello has also accused that the incumbent has done a poor job dealing with issues at the county’s Child Protective Service division.

Democratic presidential candidates have carried Monroe County in every referendum since 1988, and the county reinforced Hillary Clinton 54 -3 9; Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo also carried it 51 -4 2 last year. However, Republicans have restricted the province executive’s office since 1992.

* Onondaga County, NY Executive: Democrat haven’t won a single countywide office in Onondaga County, which is home to Syracuse, since the 1980 s, but Team Blue could break-dance that losing blotch on Tuesday in a big way. Republican County Executive Ryan McMahon faces a challenge from financier Tony Malavenda, a Democrat who has self-funded $ 800,000 for his campaign for an office his party has never won. McMahon has raised $ 700,000 for his re-election entreat, while Malavenda has taken in $ 60,000 from donors.

McMahon is arguing that the county’s economy is moving serious incomes under his lead, and he’s illustrated himself as someone who can work well across party line. Malavenda, though, was of the view that the GOP’s long rule has prevented Syracuse from obligating the same type of recovery as other municipalities that have been hit hard by the loss of manufacturing hassles. Malavenda has also affected what he calls the “pay-to-play, gerrymandering and cronyism” in province politics, saying, “I came out of the sewer business, and I feel like I was downed a level.”

Onondaga County makes up the bulk of New York’s 24 th Congressional District, which is one of only three benches in the whole country that have voted in favour of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a Republican congressman last year. In 2018 Democrat Dana Balter narrowly won the county 51 -4 9 while she was losing districtwide to Republican Rep. John Katko by a 53 -4 7 spread; Clinton carried the province 54 -4 0.

* Suffolk County, NY Executive: Democratic incumbent Steve Bellone is seeking a third and final term as executive of Suffolk County, a large suburban county on Long Island that swung from 51 -4 7 Obama to 51 -4 5 Trump. Bellone’s opponent is Republican John Kennedy, who acquired re-election as province comptroller last year in a tight 50.4 -4 9.6 contest. Bellone entered the race with a big business advantage over Kennedy, and he maintained a $1.6 million to $235,000 cash-on-hand head at the end of September.

The two candidates have sparred over the state of the county economy. Kennedy has focused on the fact that ratings authorities have downgraded Suffolk County’s bails because of ponderous borrowing, while Bellone has blamed their own problems on fiscal deficits he acquired when he took office virtually eight years ago. Bellone has argued that the county’s finances have improved since he took over and also says that Kennedy facilitated create the budgetary resources crisis when he performed on the district legislature.

* New York City, NY Ballot: On Tuesday, New York City will vote on whether to adopt instant-runoff voting for all metropolitan primaries and special ballots. If a majority votes in favor of Ballot Question 1, instantaneous runoffs would come into effect for hastens for mayor, public proponent, comptroller, borough chairwoman, and the New York City Council starting in 2021.

The measure would not impact general elections, where it still would make only a simple plurality of the vote to prevail, but if New York City does borrow instant-runoff voting, it “couldve been” far and away the largest district in America to do so.

* Aurora, CO Mayor: Republican Mike Coffman, a onetime congressman who lost his seat last year, is seeking a resurgence in the open seat race for mayor of Aurora, a town of 367,000 in the Denver area. Coffman has by far the most cash of any of the five candidates, and since there’s no runoff here, whoever earns the most votes will win.

The only Democrat in this officially nonpartisan contest is neighbourhood NAACP head Omar Montgomery. Also in the hunt are Republican City Councilwoman Marsha Berzins, who filled in as temporary mayor last year when incumbent Steve Hogan are ill( Hogan died in May of last year, and another Republican took over ), as well as former City Councilman Ryan Frazier, who became an independent after losing various races as a Republican. A fifth applicant, Renie Peterson, had given rise to very little cash.

* Des Moines, IA Mayor: Former state Sen. Jack Hatch, who was the 2014 Democratic nominee for bos of Iowa, announced just before the mid-September filing deadline that he would challenge Mayor Frank Cownie in this nonpartisan race. Cownie, a fellow Democrat, was first reelected in 2003, and he’s the longest-serving mayor in Des Moines history. A few other campaigners are running, and if no one takes a majority on Tuesday, there would be a runoff Dec. 3.

Hatch, who were responsible as a make, has argued that the city needs to do a better enterprise improving infrastructure and mental health care. He’s also affected Des Moines’ new zoning code for “fast-tracking” development projects, which will intend less input from the neighborhoods that will be impacted.

However, as Hatch himself affirmed where reference is knocked off his campaign, he’s the “underdog.” Cownie won his last re-election campaign in 2015 with 80% of the voting rights. Hatch was last on the ballot during the 2014 GOP wave when he lost to Republican Gov. Terry Branstad 59 -3 7.

10 PM ET: Salt Lake City, UT

* Salt Lake City, UT Mayor: Mayor Jackie Biskupski is not aiming a second term, and two Democrat are competing to succeed her. In early October Biskupski endorsed state Sen. Luz Escamilla, who would be the city’s firstly Hispanic mayor, over City Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall. Biskupski and Mendenhall have clashed over the city’s administers with the GOP-dominated state legislature over the Utah Inland Port Authority, a state-created agency that has attracted a great deal of disagreement.

Last year, Biskupski ended negotiations with the legislature, arguing that their Inland Port legislation was “designed to incrementally impel Salt Lake City to bend to the Legislature’s will.” Mendenhall, who was the City Council chairwoman at the time, continued to talk to legislative governors, though, and she earned some concessions for the city in the money that culminated up passing.

Biskupski was nevertheless angry about the bill’s passage, and she said of Mendenhall, “She has never stood with me.” Mendenhall says she still opposes the project, and like Escamilla, says she’ll continue Biskupski’s lawsuit over the port’s creation and duty arbiter if elected.

Two recent canvas evidence Mendenhall ahead of Escamilla. A Dan Jones& Associates examination for the Salt Lake Chamber held Mendenhall a 42 -3 7 side, while a Y2 Analytics survey for Utah Policy had her ahead 46 -3 3.

11 PM ET: San Francisco, CA

* San Francisco, CA District Attorney: George Gascon announced last year that he has not been able to attempt re-election as district attorney, and four nominees entered the race to succeed him. The contest took an unexpected turn in early October, though, when Gascon quitted early and moved back to Southern California to prepare a bid for Los Angeles County district attorney. San Francisco Mayor London Breed was already supporting onetime metropoli counsel Suzy Loftus, and by appointing her to oust Gascon, she rendered Loftus a few weeks of incumbency before Tuesday’s election.

Loftus faces three foes, but her most prominent foe is public supporter Chesa Boudin. Both of Boudin’s mothers was committed as part of the radical Weather Underground and went to prison when he was just 14 months aged for their persona as getaway motorists in the notorious Brink’s armored gondola pillage that ended in the deaths of two police officers and a security guard north of New York City in 1981. Boudin has said that his time visiting his parents in prisons dallied the biggest part in forming his political vistums, including his support for ending cash bail.

Both Loftus and Boudin have called for overhauling the local justice system, but the government has two very varied basis of support. In addition to Breed, Loftus has the backing of Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris, who are all former San Francisco elected official( Harris in fact acted as D.A. in the 2000 s ). Boudin, by differentiate, has the support of a number of prominent national criminal justice reformers, including Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.

Deputy state attorney general Leif Dautch and former San Francisco attorney Nancy Tung, who would be the city’s first Chinese American district attorney, are also on the ballot, but neither has attracted the type of money or attention that Loftus and Boudin have. All the candidates will compete in a ranked-choice election, though, so the second-choice advantages of the lesser-known contenders could still have an impact.