Grading Theo Epstein’s Cubs Free Agent Signings

Posted On Mar 12, 2020 By admin With Comments Off

Theo Epstein has dished as the Cubs’ President of Baseball Business for nine offseasons now. With an seeing on postulate starting in 2015, the sorority committed at least $191 MM in three of four offseasons. The Cubs were able to avoid paying the comfort levy in 2018, resetting their penalty percentages for 2019. Under the designation of a first-time payor, the squad received a $7.6 MM luxury taxation statement for’ 19. For 2020, it materializes Cubs ownership under the Ricketts family is again treating the cornerstone charge threshold- $208 MM for 2020- as something of a payment ceiling. Based on the team’s quiet offseason, it appears that the Ricketts aren’t willing to go much beyond that point.

Had the Cubs covered up against the second surcharge doorstep of $248 MM, they would have been subject to a tax bill in the neighborhood of $14 MM, and could have potentially reset in 2021 with Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood coming off the books. Given that relatively modest one-time penalty, the question must be asked: is there more at are participating in the Ricketts’ unwillingness to expend? For instance, could ownership’s reluctance to waste be a function of Epstein’s track record in free busines? In other statements, can the Cubs’ top exec be trusted with the checkbook?

To answer that question, I’ve assigned a note evaluate to each of Epstein’s 15 Cubs free agent signings of $10 MM or more. Aside from the grades, this will too support context on how the Cubs got to their present situation. Note that this analysis skips some effective bargain contracts, such as the Cubs’ 2012 signing of pitcher Scott Feldman. That ratifying webbed the Cubs Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop in a busines months later, which turned out to be a masterstroke. Still, that’s more a testament to Epstein’s trading ability than a measure of his track record in signing substantial free agents.

The Rebuilding Years

David DeJesus– signed on 11/30/ 11 for two years, $10 MM. Grade: B

What we said at the time: Given the lack of offense he supplied the Athletics, DeJesus didn’t come at a bargain price for the Cubs. Still, the 32 -year-old will be worth the money if he returns back in his first increased National League exposure.

DeJesus was Epstein’s first free agent signing of his Cubs tenure. This subscribe worked out punishment. At the time, the Cubs were still running out the clock on left fielder Alfonso Soriano‘s treat, while they had little to speak of in freedom or center field. DeJesus wound up extending the team in defensive innings at both of those positions in 2012, and provided as a classic second-division regular. In August of the second year of DeJesus’ contract, the Cubs basically contributed him apart to the National to avoid paying his remaining $2.5 MM.

Edwin Jackson– signed on 12/20/ 12 for four years, $52 MM. Grade: F

What we said at the time: They paid about market value for Jackson, which could net a profit if he improves. The contract will do more sense to me if the Cubs aim to contend in 2014. Otherwise, they won’t get a lot out of the first half of the contract, when Jackson is closest to his prime. A contract of this quality might have been a better move during the 2013 -1 4 offseason, when the team will be apparently closer to winning.

Jackson was Epstein’s first major free agent signing for the Cubs, and at the time the move had a” this coin is burning a opening in our pocket” vibe. The Cubs had moved parallel seeks of the second and third-best free agent starters that wintertime, Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. You probably don’t remember it this road because Sanchez’s distribute culminated inadequately, but his first two seasons of that five-year, $80 MM deal with the Tigers were good enough to pay for roughly the part contract.

Jackson’s selling site was taking the ball every fifth date and putting up an ERA around 4.00, perhaps with a little of upside to unlock. Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said at the time,” He sloped all of last year at 28 years old, he’s been incredibly sturdy, had some really excellent seasons during his time in the major league, and we actually think his best days are ahead of him .” That primacy was a reasonable one, although Jackson still seemed unnecessary for a team with two rebuilding seasons ahead of it. More sensible were the Cubs’ smaller gyration breadth slews that winter, for Scott Feldman, Scott Baker, and Carlos Villanueva.

Ultimately, Jackson bombarded in Chicago, offsetting 58 began with a 5.58 ERA over the first two seasons. By June of the third year, the righty was exhausted. The assignment, perhaps, was not to spend substantial money on non-star free agents.

Carlos Villanueva- ratified on 12/20/ 12 for two years, $10 MM. Grade: B

What we said at the time: He’ll has become a handy swingman.

Villanueva was indeed able to serve as a helpful swingman for the 2013 -1 4 Cubs, provisioning 20 starts due to a Matt Garza trauma and the Feldman, Jeff Samardzija/ Jason Hammel transactions. But it wasn’t hard to move him back to the bullpen when the Cubs needed a smudge for Arrieta.

There’s a chink now, as the Cubs had a quiet 2013 -1 4 offseason. It wasn’t for lack of trying, nonetheless, as they made a $120 MM bid for Masahiro Tanaka.

Creating a Winner

Jason Hammel- signed on 12/12/ 14 for two years, $20 MM. Grade: B

What we said at the time: Signing Hammel would help them stabilize the middle of their pirouette, but probably would not preclude them from continuing to pursue an wizard like Lester. The reported calls make for an beautiful premium for Chicago.

The Cubs had included Hammel with Samardzija in the transaction that netted them Addison Russell from Oakland in the summer of 2014, and then they wreaked Hammel back as a free agent in December. The unit was able to avoid a three-year commitment and add a secondary rotation piece as Epstein formed his first real push for contention. Though Hammel failed to make an impact in the playoffs in his time with the Cubs, he solid regular season work with a 3.79 ERA across 61 regular season starts.

Jon Lester- signed on 12/13/ 14 for six years old, $155 MM. Grade: A

What we said at the time: The lofty $155 MM price tag parallelled possibilities, and after years of conserving payroll, the Cubs can certainly afford it. The Cubs need their new unity to be a workhorse, a feature that’s missing from the team’s other projected starters. Any treat of such magnitude and span for a starting pitcher carries a lot of threat, but the Lester signing addressed the team’s biggest need without sacrificing young cornerstone musicians or a drawing pick.

The Cubs applied a stupendou attempt into their pursuit of Lester, convincing him that the team was ready to contend. His signing labelled a turning point for the franchise. Lester handed, especially on the front end of the deal with 9.1 WAR in the first two seasons and 35 2/3 superb, crucial makes in their 2016 postseason operated. The Cubs don’t win the World Series without Lester, cementing his status as a right tale. Even as Lester changes into more of a back-rotation arm, he’s continued to provide the Cubs with solid innings, entailing the Cubs will likely get an even-money return on their investment.

The Cubs signed Lester in the 2014 -1 5 offseason, and likewise engaged free agents Russell Martin and James Shields that wintertime. After the 2015 association astonishingly reached the NLCS, the Cubs pushed in more chippings on their heaviest-spending offseason to date.

John Lackey– indicated on 12/4/ 15 for two years, $32 MM. Grade: B

What we said at the time: I thought Lackey would dominate a three-year deal even at his advanced age and with a qualifying present fixed, so plucking him from the Cardinals on a two-year term was a big win.

After entering the offseason aiming impact starting pitching, the Cubs finished a” distant third” to the Red Sox in the bidding for David Price, according to Epstein. That led him to a much more modest commitment with Lackey. Lackey’s tenancy with the Cubs was similar to that of Hammel: good value in his first season with the team, and negligible postseason impact.

Ben Zobrist– ratified on 12/8/ 15 for four years, $56 MM. Grade: A

What we said at the time: I was surprised by the Cubs’ plan to move Castro to make room for a second baseman from outside the organization. Instead of plugging Baez in at second base, the Cubs vanished with ex-serviceman Ben Zobrist, who turns 35 in May. Zobrist provided as Joe Maddon’s Swiss Army knife for six seasons after supporting himself in the Majors with the Rays. While Zobrist may not be the defensive resource he once was, he’s still an excellent high-contact hitter and potential three-win player. The Cubs should get good value with Zobrist at $14 MM a year, despite the riskiness of ratifying a musician through age 38. He’s a clear improvement over Castro, and with the Yankees taking on Castro’s contract, two-thirds of Zobrist’s lot is covered.

Like Lester, Zobrist became an integral part of the Cubs’ 2016 championship unit, earning World Series MVP. The dispensation of his regular season value to the Cubs was uneven, with two seasons of around 4 Crusade and two that were close to zero. Eventually, Zobrist rendered the Cubs much more than $56 MM importance of value.

Jason Heyward– indicated on 12/11/ 2015 for eight years, $184 MM. Grade: D

What we said at the time: I was surprised to see the Cubs aggressively seeking Jason Heyward, because right field didn’t seem like a primary need for the squad. Nonetheless, they indicated the offseason’s best standing player to an eight-year deal guaranteeing $184 MM. That the Cubs will effectively be ratifying Heyward away from the Cardinals exclusively honeys the administer for the golf-club. Including an opt-out clause was a prerequisite to signing Heyward, who was an exceptionally young free agent at 26 years old. Now that the Cubs have Heyward and this contract, they have to hope he does opt out after 2018, making this a three-year, $78 MM deal. If Heyward’s 2018 season is good enough to compel him to opt out( to which Matt Swartz names a 50% likelihood ), then it likely represents the Cubs get more than their money’s worth.

The best available free agent that wintertime- David Price- coincided the Cubs’ want for an impact starting pitcher. Once Price signed with the Red Sox, the Cubs swiveled to the second-best available free agent in Heyward, much like the Angels indicating Anthony Rendon after missing out on Gerrit Cole this winter. The hope was for Heyward to serve as the Cubs’ center fielder, a position he had rarely played in the past but was thought to be able to handle due to his stellar right field defense.

Defense and baserunning made up a large part of Heyward’s value, but he was still a 116 wRC+ hitter over the three previous seasons. Heyward was, in essence, a younger version of Carl Crawford: a low-power area outfielder known for enormous defense and baserunning and a decent bat. Crawford, signed by Epstein in Boston five years prior, became an epic failure. Halfway through Heyward’s contract with the Cubs, the results have been similarly disheartening. Heyward has managed to climb his route up to league average offense in the past two seasons, resulting in a duo of 2 Combat safaruss. It’s not nearly enough for a actor making $23 MM a year. Barring a return to form, Heyward’s contract could wind up more than $100 MM underwater for the Cubs.

A Cubs fan might be inclined to say,” Hey, it’s not my coin, and you can’t situated a dollar importance on the incite addres Heyward delivered in Cleveland during the rain delay of Game 7 of the World Series .” Those things are true. We can’t know whether Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, and Miguel Montero would have gotten those pops without the addres or if Carl Edwards and Mike Montgomery ought to have been held onto the lead in the bottom of the inning. But we do know that Heyward has failed to live up to his contract on the field, and that he’s a large part of the payroll crunch that has remained the Cubs from improving the team the past two wintertimes. Long thought to be of interest to the Cubs, Bryce Harper inked a contract with the Phillies with an average annual appraise exclusively$ 2MM beyond that of Heyward.

Dexter Fowler– indicated on 2/25/ 16 for 1 year, $13 MM. Grade: A

What we said at the time: Fowler’s talks with the Orioles fell apart when they wouldn’t give him an opt-out clause, and the Cubs swooped in with a low-risk one-year deal. While it’s true the Cubs relinquished another capacity sketch pick, Fowler mostly fell into their laps.

From a crew view, when a low-risk free agent opportunity comes along, even after Spring Training starts, the payoff can be huge if you can find a few coins in the couch cushions and snag the player. The Cubs had all but moved on from Fowler, but when he became available for one year and $13 MM, they found the money and moved Heyward back to his natural position. The sudden contract became critical to the Cubs’ 2016 championship, as Fowler put up 4.6 WAR in the regular season and conducted off Game 7 of the World Series with a home run.

Attempting To Add Pitching

Tyler Chatwood- signed on 12/7/ 17 for three years, $38 MM. Grade: D-

What we said at the time: After come through here short on returning expat Miles Mikolas, the Cubs indicated former Rockie Tyler Chatwood to a astonishingly gigantic contract for a pitcher coming off a 4.69 ERA. Now that he’s out of Colorado, Chatwood has several things going for him: his age( 28 ), his ability to induce groundballs, and a fastball approaching 95 miles per hour. Though it was surprising to see Chatwood land at roughly $13 MM a year, he’s a solid upside option to supplant Lackey.

The Cubs were unwilling to go beyond $15.5 MM for Mikolas- who aimed up having a spectacular 2018 season- and instead provided the market for Chatwood. You might be noticing a trend here: when Epstein has won the bidding for a childish free agent the Cubs perceive to have upside- Edwin Jackson, Jason Heyward, and Tyler Chatwood- the contracts have gone terribly. Chatwood’s longstanding difficulty with the Rockies had been a lack of control, and the Cubs weren’t able to fix that. In fact, in 2018, Chatwood ambled nearly 20% of batters faced, by far the worst in the game among those with 100 innings. Chatwood’s contract seems likely to land him the Cubs’ fifth starter task out of camp in 2020. It’s another case of the Ricketts’ recent monetary conservatism avoiding the team from concluding amends- undoubtedly the free agent and sell groceries offered better alternatives for the Cubs’ rotation this winter.

Brandon Morrow– signed on 12/10/ 17 for two years, $21 MM. Grade: D-

What we said at the time: While his contract is reasonable, the risk comes in the Cubs’ reliance upon a pitcher with Morrow’s tedious injury history and ponderous 2017 postseason workload. Given the volatility of relievers, the contract itself is no riskier than those given to Wade Davis, Mike Minor, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, and others.

In 2017, Morrow emerged from a minor league deal and a long injury history to serve a key role in the Dodgers’ World Series flow. Though he may have been burned out pitching 13 2/3 postseason innings, Morrow’s only real defect was a four-run drubbing in Houston at the sides of George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa that penalty the Dodgers Game 5 of the World Series. HMMMM.

It wasn’t trash can banging that did Morrow in with the Cubs, nonetheless. He impelled it merely to mid-July of the contract’s first season and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since due to harms, though Morrow is currently healthful and in clique with the Cubs on a minor league deal. To is equitable, the 2017 -1 8 offseason is so littered with free agent reliever failures that it’s difficult to say Epstein should have known better and indicated, say, Craig Stammen.

Drew Smyly– indicated on 12/12/ 17 for two years, $10 MM. Grade: D

What we said at the time: The Cubs quietly made a different free agent signing with a Maddon/ Hickey linkage, lefty Drew Smyly. Smyly had experienced Tommy John surgery in June of 2017, and was signed with an heart toward the 2019 rotation. If Smyly returns to full state and ability for 2019, the Cubs will have a good kind of problem on their hands in that they’ll have six demonstrated starting pitchers under control for that season.

Though it’s only been two years, the Cubs seem far removed from a duration when they would throw $10 MM at a pitcher in the expectation that he had been able to ply depth a full season into the future. Smyly was a luxury and a degree stash, and while he did return to a Major League mound in 2019, it wasn’t for the Cubs. In the first omen of the club’s clamping down on payroll, Smyly was sent to the Rangers as a unadulterated stipend drop so that the Cubs could “afford” Cole Hamels‘ guild option. That the Cubs dumped$ 7MM of Smyly’s contract and he was subsequently frightful for most of 2019 saves this from an F grade, but it’s hard to say whether Epstein got lucky or actually expected the lefty to struggle.

Steve Cishek– signed on 12/14/ 17 for two years, $13 MM. Grade: B

What we said at the time: Cishek, 31, has had a few ups and downs at times in recent years and has played with four organizations in the past three seasons. For the best part, though, he has continued to function as a quality setup option. The sidearming Cishek will render a different look out of a re-worked Cubs pen.

It’s hard to complain about research results the Cubs get out of Cishek, who posted a 2.55 ERA across 134 1/3 innings in his two seasons. Though he was charitable with free passes, hitters generally couldn’t square him up.

Yu Darvish– ratified on 2/10/ 18 for six years old, $126 MM. Grade: C

What we said at the time: Darvish’s $21 MM average annual ethic was surprisingly low-pitched. Like other big-hearted sell teams, the Cubs are intent on staying below the $197 MM competitive match levy threshold, and the sixth year given to Darvish cured accomplish that. With Darvish in the crease alongside Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Chatwood, the reigning NL Central champs will have one of the more complete( and formidable) gyrations in all of baseball.

Darvish’s debut season with the Cubs in 2018 was a disaster, as he made merely eight starts due to injuries. At that site, his contract looked like relatively the albatross. Even as late as July 3rd of the 2019 season, the righty’s ERA sat at 5.01. Then, he reeled off a 13 -start run with a 2.76 ERA, 118 strikeouts, and a merely seven moves in 81 2/3 innings. A pitcher who the hell is exhibited lousy regulate for the Cubs suddenly had the best control in baseball. Darvish’s turnaround and the possibility of having strong work in the final four years of his contract symbolizes this contract could become a win for the Cubs. Of course, Darvish is 33 now, so it could easily go south as well.

Craig Kimbrel– ratified on 6/5/ 19 for three years, $43 MM. Grade: F

What we said at the time: With a occupation 1.91 ERA, 14.7 K/ 9, and 4.23 K/ BB rate over nine seasons and 532 2/3 occupation innings, Kimbrel’s resume could very well eventually acre him in Cooperstown down the road. While 2018 wasn’t as reigning as some of his past years, Kimbrel still seemed to have a viable platform year with a 2.74 ERA, 13.86 K/ 9, and 3.10 K/ BB over 62 1/3 formulates for the World Series-champion Red Sox. Beyond the surface crowds, however, there were some red flags. It was hard to ignore Kimbrel’s increased strifes in the second half of last-place season, and then through Boston’s playoff lope.

It could be a win-win situation for Chicago, as the team looks to both avoid paying top levy threshold while also getting a closer to bolster a bullpen that has generally been around the middle of the compres this season. The hulk question could concern Kimbrel’s effectiveness, as other actors whose preparing offer-induced long waits in free agency( Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales in 2014) both struggled seriously after sitting out months of the season.

That concern from MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk proved prescient, as Kimbrel announced a 6.53 ERA while allowing nine home run, more than a reach per inning, and a 12.5 BB% in his 20 2/3 innings. Kimbrel has two more seasons with the Cubs to turn the contract around, with the possibility of an additional season vesting. You can see how one bad subscribe begat another. Morrow was unable to serve as the team’s closer in 2019 as meant, advertise the Cubs to use the money they saved from Ben Zobrist’s leave of absence on Kimbrel. Now, due to Kimbrel’s presence and contract, the biggest addition to a questionable bullpen this winter was Jeremy Jeffress.

Of these 15 free agent contracts, Darvish, Heyward, Lester, Kimbrel, and Chatwood remain on the books for 2020. For luxury tax roles, that’s just under $97 MM. Epstein was able to win a World Series in Chicago in part due to free agent contracts for Lester, Zobrist, Fowler, and Lackey, but missteps on other players have led to the Ricketts family turning off the spigot- perhaps even at the expense of contention.