The 2024 Oscar night approaches, bringing with it no shortage of glamour, wild moments, teary speeches and parties, both for the stars that attend, and for the audience that watches at home.
Actual winners and nominees notwithstanding, the home audience generally has much more fun than the people at the show. At home or at a favorite bar, viewers can get a drink, a snack, use the bathroom, and dress to comfort without the threat of paparazzi.
And, of course, home viewers can participate in the 2024 Oscar pool. Who will win? Who should? Anyone wanting to pick up that extra cash on Oscar night, or just win some bragging rights, look no further than the Wealth of Geeks 2024 Oscar Predictions.
Prepare to take notes, and a warning: watch out for an upset or two.
Best Documentary Feature
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- To Kill a Tiger
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Start with a no-brainer. Though Four Daughters picked up a number of prestigious international awards, the statue in this category will go to 20 Days in Mariupol. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine, Academy voters will find the film both affecting and timely. Couple that with the ongoing debate over aid here in the US and the underlying story of a small country standing up to autocracy, and Mariupol should win in a landslide.
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Animated Feature
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Sometimes, the nomination represents a win unto itself. In this case, both Elemental and Nimona follow that trend. Elemental feels the least deserving of any of the nominees, while Nimona—though beautiful—will probably alienate some more conservative Academy voters thanks to its overwhelming queer themes. Robot Dreams will have defenders, no doubt, though if an upset happens here, look to the Miyazaki-directed Boy and the Heron, the animation legend’s swan song. Safe bets, however, should fall on web-slinging to Oscar glory. Yes, Spider-Verse is a sequel, but it also scored the biggest box office here. It also deserves to win.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature
- Io Capitano, Italy
- Perfect Days, Japan
- Society of the Snow, Spain
- The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany
- The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom
Godzilla, wherefore art thou? If only Japan had submitted Godzilla Minus One as its international feature, this category would look a lot more interesting. The limited budgets for campaigns for Capitano and Perfect Days will doom those two films to also-rans. Netflix has campaigned for Society of the Snow, though the studio tips its hand that it has spent most of its campaign money on Maestro and Nimona. Teachers’ Lounge has a die-hard following, but that won’t trump Jonathan Glazer’s popularity as a producer and director in Hollywood. Look for Glazer and Zone to take home the trophy.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Could Cause an Upset: The Teachers’ Lounge
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
- Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
- Tony McNamara, Poor Things
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
This category may offer the toughest call of any this year. All five movies earned raves for their writing, and given Oppenheimer’s momentum, it could snag the gold here, especially if it takes home two or three other top awards (more on those in a moment). On the other hand, the lament over Barbie missing out on a Best Director or Actress nomination could well up sentiment for a surprise surge. That movie’s biggest innovation, after all, came from its script, not its direction.
But don’t count out Poor Things, which has a devoted following, or American Fiction, which has had growing buzz the past few weeks, not to mention taken home a BAFTA and Indie Spirit Award. That the Writer’s Guild only nominated Fiction, Barbie and Oppenheimer also signals that this race might only have three contenders.
For now, bet on American Fiction. But watch out for a last-minute doll blow-up.
Will Win: American Fiction
Should Win: Barbie
Could Cause an Upset: Barbie
Best Original Screenplay
- Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
- David Hemingson, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
- Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, May December
- Celine Song, Past Lives
Another tough category. Conventional wisdom says Anatomy of a Fall, one of the year’s biggest surprises that managed to capture noms in other major categories, has the edge here. On the other hand, Past Lives missed out on an International Feature nomination, but getting a Best Picture nod might also hint that the Academy will take this opportunity to show it some love. A Spirit Award also suggests the movie has some momentum.
With all that in mind, the Academy does love Alexander Payne, and though he didn’t pen the script to The Holdovers, Oscar might see a screenplay win as proxy love. Like the Adapted Screenplay category, this award will have everyone guessing right up until the moment the envelope opens. For now, flip a coin and say…Anatomy of a Fall.
Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could Cause an Upset: The Holdovers
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
- Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Talk about a shoo-in. Downey has taken home just about every major award, including the SAG and Golden Globe. He has the comeback narrative: wild kiddie star turned addict, does prison time, becomes a franchise icon and beloved actor. The only possible upset here could come from Brown, given American Fiction’s late-in-the-game momentum. That said, don’t count on it.
Who Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr.
Who Should Win: Robert Downey, Jr.
Best Supporting Actress
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- America Ferrera, Barbie
- Jodie Foster, Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Like Downey in the Supporting Actor category, Randolph has nabbed awards trophies like a magnet, scoring the SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and a litany of critic awards. As mentioned above, the Academy also loves Alexander Payne, and awarding Randolph for The Holdovers seems to seal her win.
That should come as a bigger surprise than it does. Brooks, a Tony Winner, had early buzz here, while Blunt, a beloved actress, finally scored her first nomination. Ferrera has the kind of white-hot explosive monologue that the Academy loves (see also: Beatrice Straight in Network), and Barbie’s aforementioned remorse could have put her over the finish line in another year.
Still, we feel safe in saying not this year.
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should Win: Danielle Brooks
Best Song
- “What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, Barbie
- “I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie
- “The Fire Inside,” Diane Warren, Flamin’ Hot
- “It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson, American Symphony
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Scott George, Killers of the Flower Moon
Everyone say it together: two-time Oscar winner Billie Eilish. Get used to it.
Eilish, with a Top 40 radio hit, has considerable momentum behind her here. “I’m Just Ken” has internet buzz (not to mention the most anticipated performance of the show), but the novelty of the song likely won’t last beyond Oscar night itself. Warren and Batiste enjoy legendary status in the recording world, but that probably won’t translate here.
That leaves Wahzhazhe, a beautiful and unique nominee, which might sound a bit too different for some voters. Look for Eilish and Barbie to triumph here.
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”
Best Score
- Laura Karpman, American Fiction
- John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
- Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
The Oppenheimer juggernaut continues, with Ludwig Göransson taking home the 2024 Best Score Oscar. His only real competition: longtime rocker Robbie Robertson, whose longstanding connections in Hollywood–and recent passing–might cause an upset.
That said, don’t count on it.
Will Win: Ludwig Göransson
Should Win: Ludwig Göransson
Best Actor
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Full stop, everyone: if there’s an upset on Oscar night, it will happen here.
All five of the actors here command the respect of Hollywood, which brings with it the sentiment that results in Awards glory. American Fiction has momentum, though probably not enough to separate Wright from the pack.
Tinseltown loves Cooper, though his constant losses at every other awards show this season hints that the Academy sees Maestro—correctly—as a vanity project. In another year, Domingo could snag the gold, or, for that matter, if Rustin had worked better as a movie. Given that he’s the movie’s sole nomination, don’t count on him taking home the statue.
That leaves Murphy, the odds-on favorite for the year, and Giamatti, another beloved actor in a movie directed by a director the Academy loves. With Oppenheimer leading in nominations and Murphy picking up the Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA, he remains the safe bet. But watch out for Giamatti, should voters have a bit of buyer’s remorse over Oppenheimer’s dominance.
Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Should Win: Cillian Murphy
Could Cause an Upset: Paul Giamatti
Best Actress
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
- Annette Bening, Nyad
Like Murphy, Lily Gladstone has picked up just about every major award this season, with one exception. Stone snagged the BAFTA, while Gladstone didn’t even get a nomination.
Consider that the outlier. Netflix shifted its Maestro strategy to focus on Mulligan rather than Cooper or other major awards, but that probably won’t derail the Gladstone train. Bening’s nom came as a surprise, as did that of Hüller, hinting that they fall into the nomination-as-win category.
Thus, barring a thrown Stone, Gladstone remains the safe bet.
Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Should Win: Lily Gladstone
Best Director
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
The question here is not will Christopher Nolan—one of the greatest living directors—finally take home his Oscar. It’s could any other nominee here possibly beat him?
Sentiment might help Scorsese (another of the greatest living directors), though he already has one statue. Lanthimos didn’t win for The Favourite, which also might capture some Academy sympathy. Glazer and Triet, both on their first shot for the Director trophy, command voter respect, but don’t have a body of work that could stand up to The Dark Knight Trilogy, Inception, Interstellar or Memento.
Bottom line: Christopher Nolan finally wins.
Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Technical Categories
Best Cinematography
- Edward Lachman, El Conde
- Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Matthew Libatique, Maestro
- Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
- Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
van Hoytema’s camera captured the first mushroom clouds, and will capture Oscar too.
Best Editing
- Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
- Kevin Tent, The Holdovers
- Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things
Mavropsaridis mounts a good case, but can’t withstand the Oppenheimer blast.
Best Costumes
- Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
- Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Napoleon
- Ellen Mirojnick, Oppenheimer
- Holly Waddington, Poor Things
Barbie takes home the gold here for the recreation of some of the doll’s most famous looks.
Best Hair & Make-Up
- Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue; Golda
- Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell; Maestro
- Luisa Abel, Oppenheimer
- Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston; Poor Things
- Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé; Society of the Snow
Despite the controversy around the nose, Maestro edges out the more deserving Poor Things.
Best Sound
- Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; The Creator
- Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; Maestro
- Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
- Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O’Connell; Oppenheimer
- Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn; The Zone of Interest
Again, the Oppenheimer siren call mutes others.
Best Visual Effects
- Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould; The Creator
- Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima; Godzilla Minus One
- Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
- Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould; Napoleon
The Creator had some of the most seamless effects in recent memory, but will lose out to Godzilla both because the Academy wants to award the latter, and because that movie’s effects look almost as good and cost much less.
Best Production Design
- Sarah Greenwood, production design; Katie Spencer, set decoration; Barbie
- Jack Fisk, production design; Adam Willis, set decoration; Killers of the Flower Moon
- Arthur Max, production design; Elli Griff, set decoration; Napoleon
- Ruth De Jong, production design; Claire Kaufman, set decoration; Oppenheimer
- James Price and Shona Heath, production design; Zsuzsa Mihalek, set decoration; Poor Things
Pink is the new gold, as the eye-popping, surreal designs of Barbie win out here.
Shorts
Best Live Action Short
- The After
- Invincible
- Knight of Fortune
- Red, White and Blue
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Animated Short
- Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Our Uniform
- Pachyderme
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Best Documentary Short
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Island in Between
- The Last Repair Shop
- Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Will Win: The Last Repair Shop.
Most Oscar watchers (and, dare we say, some of the voters) will never see the short subjects. Nevertheless, for the sake of that office Oscar pool, see our predictions here.
Best Picture
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
The weird, ranked-choice ballot by which the Academy chooses its Best Picture winners always makes this award tough to call. Oppenheimer remains the most logical winner, given its momentum in other awards categories, at the DGA, Golden Globes and even the SAG awards. Even that would seem to outweigh any sentiment or momentum picked up by other, indie titles such as American Fiction or The Holdovers.
That leaves the pink elephant in the room: Barbie. Could the doll survive the bomb? Maybe, though, the omission of Barbie in other categories—directing, in particular—signals that voters may not love the movie as much as they say they do. Ryan Gosling’s shaming of the Academy for not nominating Greta Gerwig as Director or Margot Robbie in the Actress category might turn some heads…
…but it will likely turn off as many voters as it would sway. Bet on the mushroom cloud on Oscar night, but don’t rule out the last-minute pink flash.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Could Cause an Upset: Barbie
