6 political tales to observe in 2026, from midterms to maps

The curtain has risen on the year of the United States’ 250th anniversary – and the stage is set for a critical year for the future of politics in America.

Here are six key stories in politics to watch in 2026.

The midterm elections: the House, Senate and Trump agenda at stake

The year’s marquee political story will likely be the midterm elections, where all seats in the U.S. House and 35 in the U.S. Senate will be up for election. Those seats include many in recently-redrawn congressional districts or held by members of Congress not running for reelection. 

At stake could be the future of President Donald Trump’s agenda: whether Republicans can continue to pass the legislation he champions through the House and Senate during his final two years as president. Issues such as health care, the economy and immigration are set to be hot topics.

Republicans hope to expand their razor-thin majority in the House, in order to give House Speaker Mike Johnson more votes to pass bills. Meanwhile, Democrats hope to net enough seats to flip the House so they can serve as a check on Trump’s legislative agenda. 

Once all vacancies in the House are filled — which is expected to be done by mid-2026 — Democrats would need to net three seats in the midterms to flip the House. 

Republicans have a larger majority in the U.S. Senate, currently holding 53 seats to 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. 

But both parties are also competing to bolster their ranks in the upper chamber. Key Senate races to watch include Georgia, where Republicans see incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff as a key target.

Contentious primaries will set up key races

A few of this year’s major House, Senate and gubernatorial races are set to spotlight contentious primaries, as multiple candidates vie to be their party’s choice for the race in November. 

This includes the U.S. Senate primaries in Texas, scheduled for March, where both Republicans and Democrats have multiple high-profile candidates in the ring. 

Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn — who has the support of the GOP establishment — faces primary challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. All three candidates are aiming to showcase themselves as Trump’s staunch ally.

Meanwhile, Democrats — who face an uphill battle after decades of unsuccessful statewide wins in Texas — also have a fiery primary. State Rep. James Talarico, a rising party star, is facing progressive firebrand U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary. 

Other races with crowded partisan primaries include Illinois’ Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Georgia’s Republican U.S. Senate primary and Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary.

Could congressional maps change even more? 

The race for the House could also be further impacted by congressional redistricting, with the major caveat that in many states, filing deadlines for candidates have passed or will come before mid-decade redistricting is completed.

Congressional maps are usually drawn once every 10 years after the census — but when Texas redrew its map this past summer to favor GOP candidates, in response to pressure from the White House, it set off a mid-decade redistricting scramble and multiple redrawn maps across both red and blue states. 

The midterms in November 2026 will show whether redrawn congressional maps in Texas, California and elsewhere will deliver for the parties that pushed for them. 

And all eyes are on a few other states that could take steps to draw new maps, although whether either party will get more favorable seats before Election Day is up in the air. 

Virginia might redraw its map to favor Democrats, for instance, while Florida could redraw to favor Republicans — although neither state is certain to redistrict.

And an impending Supreme Court decision may scramble maps further. The court is considering a case that could determine whether Louisiana and many other states may have to redraw their maps in a race-blind manner. A decision is expected by the end of June 2026 when the court’s term ends.

Governor races and Trump’s agenda at the state level

Beyond the House and Senate elections, 36 states are set to host gubernatorial races in 2026, after only two states (Virginia and New Jersey) had races for governor in 2025.

While there is no political significance to to the partisan balance of the nation’s governors, Trump’s agenda could still be at stake at the state level — given that governors have often taken the lead in their states of either embracing the president’s agenda or opposing it.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada are among the states expected to have close governor races where both parties will be trying heavily to secure the state’s top spot.

The long road to 2028

While Trump’s inauguration may have been less than a year ago, by many measures, the race for president in 2028 has already begun. 

As figures from both parties campaign for the midterms, they may be also testing out campaign messages and getting a pulse ahead of launching presidential campaigns. 

High-profile Democrats visited battleground states throughout 2025, potentially to lay the groundwork for runs; many are set to continue traveling throughout 2026. The Democratic Party is also formally working on the primary and caucus calendars for 2028 in early 2026.

On the Republican side, there has been less open jockeying by presidential hopefuls ahead of 2028 — but many are keeping close eyes on Vice President JD Vance, widely considered the top Republican contender if he chooses to run. 

Turning Point USA, the major conservative group formerly led by slain activist Charlie Kirk, has already indicated it would support Vance for president in 2028 and is set to start dialing up early support for the vice president in key states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

The future of the political parties

But the early moves on 2028 come as each major political party continues to grapple with internal divisions, and those divisions could play out across primaries and all the way to the midterms — and beyond. 

Democrats, locked out of power in Washington, are still grappling with what lessons to take from losses in 2024 and how to regain trust with voters who view the party as out of touch.

Victories in gubernatorial races and special elections in 2025 put some wind in the party’s sails, but haven’t quashed debates over what direction Democrats should go in, including whether it needs to be more moderate or become more progressive.

Republicans, in turn, have been riven by debates over free speech and antisemitism, and deepening divides between the more traditional conservative wing of the party and the “Make America Great Again” movement that Trump spearheaded. 

The MAGA movement itself is facing infighting, with figures such as Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene who previously championed MAGA breaking with the president and his allies.

ABC News’ Benjamin Siegel, Lauren Peller, and Devin Dwyer contributed to this report.