This Week in Statehouse Action: The New Abnormal edition

Oh hey there!

Extremely grateful to you for taking some time from[ INSERT CORONAVIRUS-ALTERED ACTIVITY HERE] to join me for the latest in statehouse action.

Me, I’m taking a little time out from attending my first full-fledged virtual conference.

It’s … strange. But it’s good! The content is amazing, and big swaths of the affair translate well to the online platform.

But part of the enjoyable of conferences is watching people you don’t often otherwise visualize or ultimately connecting with that person you’ve simply ever emailed with or running into that person from six rackets/ campaigns ago you’d lost touch with or … well, you get it.

Just another thing we’ve lost for the foreseeable future because of the Trump administration’s gross failures at every possible level.

But one of the ways we go about remedying the myriad cataclysms Trump and Co. are going to leave us with is to prevent Republican state legislators from gerrymandering the GOP into an artificial congressional majority for the next decade.

Because it’s going to give room more than precisely a Democratic chairperson to fix shit.

To that tip, this week’s installment of my multi-part look into GOP-controlled legislative cavities that Democrat can snap in November will focus on the Michigan House.

Campaign Action

You can check out previous weeks’ dives into the Minnesota Senate, the Pennsylvania House, and the Arizona House and Senate if the attitude strikes.

Just to refresh your remember, Michigan is one of eight top-targeted state legislative enclosures this fall.

The full listing, by the by 😛 TAGEND

Arizona House( Dems it is necessary fling two for majority decisions)

Arizona Senate( Dems need to throw three)

Michigan House( Dems it is necessary snap four)

Minnesota Senate( fling two)

North Carolina House( move six)

North Carolina Senate( snap five)

Pennsylvania House( turn nine)

Texas House( turn nine)

So! Michigan House( 58 R/ 52 D ).

As ever, much love to the beautiful abilities at Daily Kos Elections who crunch the numbers that give us presidential and other statewide elections results broken down by legislative quarter.

Not-so-fun-fact! Republicans have won a majority in the 110 -seat Michigan House of Representatives since the last round of redistricting in 2011 despite Democrat earning more elections in three of the last four ballots!

Yeah, that’s a gerrymander for ya.

But despite the GOP’s improbably skewed delineate, Democrat do have a path to a majority here.

In 2018, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer overcame Republican Bill Schuette 53 -4 4 to become governor and carried 56 of the 110 House accommodates–exactly the digit that her party needs to take a majority.

Helpfully , no Democrat represent districts won by Schuette, which be interpreted to mean that Republican are playing defense in four seats Whitmer prevailed.

That said, Trump triumphed three of these four accommodates in 2016, so a wipe is a tall order for sure.

Let’s take a peek at those four districts.

Democrats’ apparent best pickup possibility in the state is HD-6 1, which patronage Whitmer by a wide 54 -4 3 margin and backed Hillary Clinton 49 -4 5.

Republican incumbent Brandt Iden won his third word 51 -4 9 in 2018, but another entertaining knowledge about Michigan is that the position parliament is subject to term restrictions.

So, Iden’s out and we have an open seat .

The Republican in the hasten is Bronwyn Haltom, a longtime GOP operative who returned to Michigan just last year after are present in Trump’s White House.

She faces Democrat Christine Morse, a district commissioner and breast cancer survivor whose life and family knowledge have seen her a stem progressive.

A little more of a reach are HDs 38 and 39, both won by Trump in 2016 and by Whitmer in 2018.

HD-3 8 get for Trump 49 -4 6 before supporting Whitmer 52 -4 6.

This bench is being vacated by termed-out GOP state Rep. Kathy Crawford, who prevailed her final period by a restrict 49 -4 8 in 2018.

The Republican hoping to replace him is Chase Turner, who attempted to primary Crawford 2 years ago.

This Trump acolyte has been running for the seat ever since.

He faces Democrat Kelly Breen, who lost to the outgoing incumbent by really 588 elects last-place hertz.

She’s an attorney and city councilmember whose priorities include healthcare, the environmental issues, and repealing the state’s so-called “right to work” law.

HD-3 9 backed Trump 50 -4 6, but Whitmer won it 53 -4 5.

Republican incumbent Ryan Berman was elected to his first expression in 2018 54-42, but that election took place under … disastrou contexts:

The Democratic applicant was charged with embezzlement during the race and was sentenced to five years’ probation after the election.

This time around, Berman faces Julia Pulver, a nurse who counts healthcare as her highest plan priority–a sure selling detail as the pandemic continues to rage.

And lastly there’s HD-4 5, which reinforced Whitmer simply 49.2 -4 8.8 — a boundary of 181 votes.

In 2016, Trump made the seat 51 -4 4.

Republican incumbent Michael Webber won 55 -4 5 in 2018, but he’s termed-out this year, depriving Republicans of the benefit of incumbency, at least.

Republican Mark Tisdel is running to succeed him.

He “supports most Trump policies” but “wishes the president would discontinue tweeting.”

Democrat Barb Arness is a small business owned and a local education board trustee whose years of education advocacy will strongly inform members priorities in the Michigan House.

So while these targets are super workable, snapping the Michigan House on Nov. 3 will require a lot to go right for Democrats.

Solely , is not simply do they have to run the counter in these four regions, but they also may have some defense to play.

Remember, 10 seats they currently harbour voted for Trump in 2016( though they all went for Whitmer 2 years later ).

And yes, I know Michigan voters approved an independent redistricting fee in 2018.

But since then, the GOP majorities in the legislature have been attacking it pretty much nonstop.

A Democratic House would ultimately stymie those efforts.

Okay, after all that, let’s take a moment to reflect on the benefits of winning a Democratic-majority legislature.

In Nevada, a resolution declaring racism a public health emergency passed the Democratic district Senate( unanimously !) last week and is on its way to sail through the Democratic-majority Assembly.

The Nevada legislature too elected to extend and expand unemployment benefits.

In preparation for an Aug. 18 special session to address both commonwealth plan editions resulting from Trump’s mishandling of COVID-1 9 and criminal and social justice reform, Virginia Democrat have launched a wide-ranging police reform statute.

The quantity would

Create statewide standards of policing and block officers with good records from getting jobs in other Virginia police departments;

Outlaw no-knock authorizes;

Require the police to publish data on traffic stops and other metrics; and, um …

Ban police from having sex with someone they arrest.

HOW IS THAT LEGAL

Regrettably, Virginia lawmakers don’t seem to hitherto have the stomach to push for the elimination of prepared exemption, the dubious legal doctrine that thwarts police from being held liable when they violate people’s privileges.

Sometimes, though, even when Democrat are in charge, Republicans still manage to screw stuff up in a state.

In Maine, Republicans are rejected to do their jobs.

Despite the fact that Democrats have the governorship and majorities in both cavities of the legislature, Republicans is ongoing to block efforts to call a special session to taking any decision on the 400 or so monies left yearning after lawmakers wisely adjourned early as the pandemic began to pick up steam in March.

In Maine, the legislature can only return for a special session if majorities of both parties’ caucuses agree.

And finally, some good information FROM THE FUTURE

… wait no I imply for the future

You picture, New Hampshire has permitted flying cars.

They call them “roadable aircraft, ” but we all know what that really implies.

The new law requires you use an actual airstrip for takeoffs and landings, but you can totally drive your flying gondola to and from said airstrip once your vehicle is properly cross-file.

Welp, that’s a wrap for this week.

Oh, and a programming note: I’m actually taking a little breather next week as I try to cram in as much relaxation( and oysters) as possible in advance of the post-Labor Day election sprint.

So while I’m looking after me, you look after you, too, okay?

Because you’re important, and we need you.

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