With less than two weeks until the 2026 midterm elections, early votes cast so far serve as one more piece of evidence that Democratic enthusiasm is high in some key states, according to ABC News’ analysis.<\/p>\n
What the early vote shows and doesn\u2019t show<\/h3>\n
More than 18 million Americans had cast their votes early by mail or in person as of Thursday morning, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida<\/a>.<\/p>\n Registered Democrats and those modeled as likely to vote for Democrats have cast an even higher share of early votes in all states except for Alaska and Michigan, where the share is similar to 2024. This is according to ABC News’ own analysis run on Tuesday using voter file data from L2, a company that aggregates voter registration data with other sources to provide insights into voters and their behavior such as demographics and partisanship. The analysis includes the voters that L2 has successfully matched across elections.<\/p>\n Democrats have cast a higher share of early and absentee ballots relative to 2024 in Georgia and Iowa, where the total early vote is about 18 points more Democratic this year.<\/p>\n Modeled partisans are voters in states that do not have party registration but where L2 uses available information like turnout in primaries and other factors to predict what party they are likely to support. Neither official party registration nor being modeled to be a likely party voter guarantees that a voter will cast their ballot for that party\u2019s candidates.<\/p>\n People wait in line to vote early in-person for the midterm elections at the Marty Robbins Recreation Center in El Paso, October 19, 2026.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Evelyn Hockstein\/Reuters<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n For ballots cast so far, Democrats comprise a much larger share, according to ABC News’ analysis. This possible advantage in the early vote is consistent with higher Democratic turnout in this year\u2019s primary elections, suggesting that Democratic enthusiasm is higher.<\/p>\n This aligns with recent polling that shows Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, including in a recent ABC News\/Washington Post\/Ipsos poll<\/a> that found that 72% of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote compared to 65% of Republican voters. And a\u00a0Reuters\/Ipsos<\/a>\u00a0poll found 36% of Democrats saying they were very enthusiastic about voting in 2026 midterms compared to 29% of Republicans.<\/p>\n The early vote numbers are only one piece of the story, and they do not say anything about whether low-propensity (voters who skip some elections) Democrats or Republicans will vote later in the early vote period or on Election Day. In previous elections, Republicans have been much more likely to vote on Election Day and Republican candidates won votes cast on that day.<\/p>\n People stand in line to cast their ballot at the Knightdale Recreation Center on the first day of early voting in Knightdale, North Carolina, October 15, 2026.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Matt Ramey\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In the past two elections, the number of total votes ultimately cast broke down relatively evenly across early in-person votes, mail-in votes and Election Day votes.<\/p>\n Calculated from\u00a0a large-scale Pew Research Center survey<\/a>, which matched survey respondents with their vote record in 2024, Democrats had a margin of 24 points with absentee or mail ballots while Republicans won early in-person by 14 points and Election Day by 16 points. These estimates are in line with actual vote totals from the 11 states that break out results by vote method.<\/p>\n![\"Atlanta\"](\"https:\/\/i.abcnewsfe.com\/a\/751099a3-0a10-4385-90df-9175bdcc1ed7\/vote-2-rt-gmh-261020_1792511369667_hpMain.jpg?w=375 "\\"Atlanta\\"")
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