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WASHINGTON — <\/span>With a fragile ceasefire agreement<\/a> between the U.S. and Iran holding for now<\/a>, China is calculating its role in helping find a durable endgame to the war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n After prodding China, which is more reliant on Persian Gulf oil<\/a> than the U.S., to get involved in reopening the choked-off Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, President Donald Trump told the French news outlet Agence France-Presse this week that he believed China played a part<\/a> in encouraging Iran to agree to this week\u2019s temporary truce.<\/p>\n Three diplomats who were familiar with China\u2019s behind-the-scenes efforts also confirmed that Beijing, the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil<\/a>, used its leverage to urge the Iranians back to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n It was a major moment for Beijing, which had decried the U.S. and Israel\u2019s war against its economic partner Iran as misguided before getting directly involved in the push to call off the fighting<\/a>, including discouraging strikes by Iran. Talks between the sides are expected to begin in Pakistan this weekend.<\/p>\n With the precarious truce hanging in the balance, China will now need to make a careful calculation about whether it will tread deeper into the waters of diplomacy as its weighs the impact that a long-lasting war could have on the global economy<\/a>. Middle East turmoil goes against Beijing\u2019s interests, while its efforts may boost its global standing and strengthen its hand in negotiating thorny trade issues<\/a> during Trump\u2019s visit to China<\/a> next month.<\/p>\n \u201cBeijing is not in the business of expending its leverage as a favor to others or for the greater good,\u201d said Danny Russel, a former senior diplomat in President Barack Obama\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n Mao Ning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, told reporters this week that China \u201chas worked actively to help bring about an end to the conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n The Chinese economy is already feeling pressure from Iran\u2019s effective shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, where about 20% of the world\u2019s crude normally flows. The blockade is having an enormous impact on Asia<\/a>, a factor that seems to have informed the Chinese government\u2019s efforts to consult with Pakistan to help mediate a two-week ceasefire.<\/p>\n China does not appear interested in providing guarantees for Iran\u2019s long-term security as part of a deal to end hostilities, something Tehran has hoped for and sees as critical to deterring the U.S and Israel from carrying out strikes in the future.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s ambassador to China suggested this week that its two closest allies \u2014 China and Russia \u2014 as well as the United Nations<\/a> ensure the guarantee, which Tehran has sought before without success. Asked about that possibility, Mao would only say that \u201cwe hope that all parties will resolve their disputes through dialogue and negotiation.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, Chinese officials are cognizant that a lasting war threatens to have real impact on Beijing\u2019s bottom line. Premier Li Qiang announced last month that the government was projecting relatively modest 4.5% to 5% economic growth<\/a> this year during a property slump and growing uncertainty around the globe. It\u2019s the lowest growth target since 1991.<\/p>\n Ultimately, China\u2019s foremost goal is \u201cgrowth and development,\u201d according to one of the diplomats familiar with Chinese deliberations on the war.<\/p>\n The diplomat, who like the others was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, added that a continued closure of the strait ran counter to that interest. It not only limits the flow of a significant supply of crude to China but also cuts off an important shipping lane for Chinese exports to the Mideast.<\/p>\n Trump will likely underscore that argument to Chinese President Xi Jinping during their much-anticipated Beijing summit next month. The talks, which were originally slated for this month, were pushed back so Trump could oversee the U.S. bombardment of Iran.<\/p>\n \u201cThat the United States and Iran have at least temporarily edged away from the precipice of a catastrophic escalation owes in part to China\u2019s support for the ceasefire that Pakistan brokered,\u201d said Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group. \u201cEven if short-lived, that breakthrough affords Beijing another opportunity to present itself as a stabilizing force and Washington as a reckless one.\u201d<\/p>\n To be certain, China\u2019s view is shaped by a heavy measure of skepticism.<\/p>\n Some in Beijing see Trump\u2019s decision to launch the Iran war, as well as the military operation in January to capture then-Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a>, as being at least partially motivated by his strategy at containing China, diplomats say. Beijing was a major customer and investor<\/a> in the South American country\u2019s oil industry.<\/p>\n Privately, the Chinese have made clear that the U.S. and Iran would have to show compromise for a deal to coalesce. Beijing also is looking to press Trump to remove sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with Iran as part of a potential settlement, diplomats say.<\/p>\n The moment provides Xi some leverage at next month\u2019s summit.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump was in a crisis, and China helped,\u201d said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center. \u201cThe optics of that alone helps to lighten the mood and sweeten the pot.\u201d<\/p>\n Russel, the former State Department official, says there are signs that Beijing sees Trump as weakened after the president didn\u2019t follow through on his threat to obliterate Iranian power plants<\/a> and other critical infrastructure if Iran didn\u2019t end its blockade of Hormuz. <\/p>\n The hashtag #HeChickenedOut was trending on Chinese social media in posts about Trump, and China\u2019s state media was promoting the message that he blinked in the face of Iranian resistance, Russel said.<\/p>\n Xi, for his part, appears to be approaching the moment carefully.<\/p>\n \u201cBeijing\u2019s calculation is wait-and-see, safeguard Chinese energy and commercial interests, avoid direct confrontation with the United States, stay on good terms with its important Gulf partners like Saudi Arabia and UAE, and work with whoever ends up running Iran when the dust settles,\u201d Russel said.<\/p>\n Steve Bannon, who served as a senior adviser to Trump during his first term, said Trump will need to press Xi to buy in if he hopes to seal an enduring peace agreement with Iran.<\/p>\n \u201cWho can actually make a deal and enforce a deal? I know one group of people who can do it, and they live in Beijing,\u201d Bannon said on his \u201cWar Room\u201d podcast this week. He added, \u201cLet\u2019s just go to Beijing and sit down with a guy who can actually make a deal \u2014 Xi \u2014 and enforce a deal.\u201d<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Amiri reported from the United Nations. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n