Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, a chokepoint for 20% of the world\u2019s oil and natural gas. Besides increasing the price of fuel, which is key in the production of fertilizer, the shipping disruption also has largely stopped the export of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf and limited access to key fertilizer ingredients.<\/p>\nAbout 15% of fertilizer imports to the U.S. are from the Middle East, and about half the global supply of the key ingredient urea comes from the region, along with 30% of ammonia, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen the ports started raising their nitrogen prices due to the conflict due to shipping concerns, that directly affects me here on the farm,\u201d Littleton said.<\/p>\n
The extra costs are hard to absorb, coming after several bad years when crop prices were down even as expenses kept climbing, Littleton said.<\/p>\n
But it could be worse, as some farmers may not be able to obtain fertilizer at any price, said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re being told that many of our farmers that haven\u2019t preordered their fertilizer and paid for it may not even obtain the fertilizer that they\u2019re going to need during the season or for spring planting,\u201d Duvall said. \u201cThat\u2019s why this situation is so serious.\u201d<\/p>\n
Harry Ott, a cotton, corn and peanut farmer who also leads the South Carolina farm bureau, said there isn\u2019t enough fertilizer stockpiled in warehouses to meet demand in the coming months.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is a really dire situation that our farmers facing,\u201d Ott said.<\/p>\n
Even before the latest price increase, other factors in the last several years have led to high fertilizer prices, starting with the war between Ukraine and Russia, which blocked access to raw materials and increased natural gas prices. China also cut phosphate exports as it focused more on domestic needs.<\/p>\n
The latest factors worsened those existing supply issues, which means that even if the Iran war was resolved, fertilizer prices likely won\u2019t quickly fall, said Jacqui Fatka, a farm supply economist for creditor CoBank.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s going to be a tail to this to get everything turned back on, sent back out,\u201d Fatka said.<\/p>\n
And then there is the time it takes for shipments from the Middle East to reach the U.S. \u2014 typically 30 to 45 days to reach the Port of New Orleans.<\/p>\n
Some fertilizer is already stored in the U.S. and can meet demand amid the shortage of Middle East imports, but at some point that supply will run short.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t quite know how it\u2019s going to shake out,\u201d said Nancy Martinez, director of public policy, trade and biotechnology for the National Corn Growers Association.<\/p>\n
Nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers are largely produced domestically, which helps a little bit, said Anne Villamil, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut again, energy prices are an input, and so even if you\u2019re producing it in the U.S., if the cost of your inputs goes up, then it\u2019s going to be an increase in price to the farmers who want to buy it,\u201d Villamil said.<\/p>\n
Soaring oil prices could result in higher food prices, given the increased cost of diesel needed to transport products to grocery stores and petroleum products used in plastic packaging, said Chad Hart, an economics professor at Iowa State University.<\/p>\n
However, the increased fertilizer prices shouldn’t significantly lead to grocery store increases even as they put a crimp in farmers’ profits. That’s because on-farm costs are only a small part of what consumers pay at the supermarket.<\/p>\n
The Trump administration said it has taken steps to ease the cost of fertilizer, including moving to increase fertilizer imports from Venezuela, which U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called \u201ca huge step that puts farm security and farmers first.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Department of Agriculture also notes it previously announced $12 billion in one-time payments to help farmers offset losses primarily due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In a statement, the USDA also said it has provided more than $30 billion in additional aid to farmers since January 2025, and the agency noted its support for a more competitive fertilizer marketplace that would ultimately lower prices.<\/p>\n
Fatka, of CoBank, said the $12 billion doesn\u2019t go far for farmers with a payment of $44 per corn acre when the USDA estimates about $900 per acre for cost of production for the average U.S. farmer.<\/p>\n
Still, farm bankruptcies remain rare, with only 315 last year \u2014 a tiny percentage of the nearly 1.9 million farms nationally. And prices for the nation\u2019s two largest crops \u2014 corn and soybeans \u2014 have been climbing recently.<\/p>\n
Tom Waters, who farms about 5,000 acres (2,023 hectares) of corn, soybeans and wheat east of Kansas City, said the increase of fertilizer prices along with other costs makes it tough to make a profit when crop prices are so low.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe margins get smaller and smaller so we just have to really work hard to trim our costs and be as frugal as we can be but still provide the soil and crop what it needs to grow and produce,\u201d Waters said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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