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HAVANA — <\/span>As U.S. seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers<\/a> surge, concerns grow in Cuba<\/a> about whether the island\u2019s government and economy will survive.<\/p>\n Experts warn that a sudden halt in Venezuelan oil shipments<\/a> to Cuba could lead to widespread social unrest and mass migration following the stunning U.S. military raid that resulted in the capture of former President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019d be lying if I told you that I don\u2019t want to leave the country,\u201d said 16-year-old Cuban student Amanda G\u00f3mez. \u201cWe\u2019re all thinking about leaving, from the youngest to the oldest.\u201d<\/p>\n Long before the Jan. 3 attack, severe blackouts were sidelining life in Cuba, where people endured long lines at gas stations and supermarkets amid the island’s worst economic crisis<\/a> in decades.<\/p>\n The lack of Venezuelan oil could push Cuba over the brink, experts say.<\/p>\n \u201cThis will take an already dire situation to new extremes,\u201d said Michael Galant, senior research and outreach associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. \u201cThis is what a collapsing economy looks like.\u201d<\/p>\n Galant said he believes that\u2019s the goal of the Trump administration<\/a>: \u201cto cause such an indiscriminate suffering in the civilian population as to instigate some sort of uprising, regime change.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis sort of besiegement of Cuba is very intentional. Will it work from their perspective? I think that the Cuban people have experienced suffering for a very long time, and the Cuban government is very well versed in how to handle these situations,\u201d Galant said. \u201cI think it\u2019s very difficult to predict what will and will not spark actual regime instability. From the perspective of (U.S. Secretary of State Marco ) Rubio, it\u2019s a sort of wait them out. \u2026 There\u2019s always a breaking point.\u201d<\/p>\n From 2020 to 2024, Cuba saw its population drop by 1.4 million, which experts largely attribute to migration spurred by the worsening crisis.<\/p>\n Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban economist and demographics expert, noted that while Cubans with means have already left, migration will continue.<\/p>\n \u201cFuel is a factor that affects everything,\u201d he said. \u201cPeople are going to feel that they are in worse conditions, and people who hadn\u2019t considered leaving will feel the need to do so.\u201d<\/p>\n At the Spanish embassy in Havana on Friday, Ernesto Mac\u00edas, a 53-year-old doctor, stood in line behind dozens of people to request a family member visa for his daughter, having already obtained his Spanish citizenship.<\/p>\n \u201cI wouldn\u2019t want Cuba to be invaded or anything like that. I hope it doesn\u2019t happen, but I\u2019m sure people will continue to emigrate because there is no other way,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Cuba\u2019s gross domestic product has fallen 15% in the last six years, and President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel<\/a> noted in December that there was a 4% decrease in 2025 alone.<\/p>\n Although the Cuban economy<\/a> never fully recovered after the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, it experienced relative prosperity between 2000 and 2019, fueled by a boom in tourism and exports of services, nickel, rum and tobacco.<\/p>\n Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and coupled with a radical increase in U.S. sanctions under Trump\u2019s second administration to pressure for political change \u2013 stifling every imaginable sector \u2013 Cuba\u2019s crisis erupted with force.<\/p>\n Through it all, Cuba remained dependent on Venezuela for oil, receiving an estimated 35,000 barrels a day from the South American country before the U.S. attacked, along with some 5,500 barrels daily from Mexico<\/a> and roughly 7,500 from Russia, according to Jorge Pi\u00f1\u00f3n, of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, who tracks shipments using oil tracking services and satellite technology.<\/p>\n Even with all those shipments, blackouts persisted<\/a>, experts noted.<\/p>\n \u201cAn indefinite shutdown of the electrical system, which is no longer so impossible to imagine, can be envisioned under a total suspension of oil shipments from Venezuela, which seems to be the current strategy of the American government,\u201d said Jorge Duany, with the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would lead us to imagine the possibility of mass protests,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Andy S. G\u00f3mez, retired dean of the School of International Studies and senior fellow in Cuban Studies at University of Miami, said that even if protests do occur, he doesn\u2019t envision the downfall of Cuba while Ra\u00fal Castro is still alive and running the military.<\/p>\n \u201cAre they concerned? You bet,\u201d G\u00f3mez said. \u201cThey\u2019re not well armed; their equipment is outdated.\u201d<\/p>\n But G\u00f3mez noted that civilians aren\u2019t armed, and that it\u2019s unlikely one of the three factions of Cuba\u2019s army would break with the ruling elite.<\/p>\n \u201cAt the end of the day, someone is going to have to take the big pill, and it\u2019s either going to be D\u00edaz-Canel or (Prime Minister) Manuel Marrero Cruz for not being able to solve the problems,\u201d G\u00f3mez said.<\/p>\n On Friday, U.S. forces seized their fifth tanker<\/a> as part of a wider push by Trump\u2019s administration to control the distribution of Venezuela\u2019s oil products globally.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not clear if any of the seized tankers were bound for Cuba, but experts believe any obstruction in the supply line would be a shock given the fragility of the island\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n As the uncertainty continues, G\u00f3mez said Cuba only has one card to play with the U.S.: mass migration.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t think that Cubans are going to provoke the United States at this time,\u201d he said, adding that Cuban authorities \u201ccan absolutely control that.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cCuban military forces are on high alert,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n G\u00f3mez added that even if the worsening crisis does lead to unrest and the ouster of a top government official, that person would likely be replaced by a well-known figure.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would just be a continuation of the government,\u201d he said, adding that he doesn\u2019t believe it would bother a majority on the island. \u201cThe Cuban people only care about one thing right now, unfortunately\u2026.they want to put food on the table, have electricity, have a place to live, have a job and then what do we do about the government.\u201d<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Coto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Associated Press reporter Milexsy Dur\u00e1n in Havana contributed to this report.<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Follow AP\u2019s coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/latin-america<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n